Understanding the Levers of Financial Analysis in Real Estate Syndication
When doing financial analysis
for real estate syndication or
fun, there's a lot of different
what I call levers which can
change the outcome for your
investors. And for you. In this
blast from the past, we're going
to look back at a video I made
about two years ago, talks about
cash flow, and about what those
levers are in cash flow. So we
can see how does the syndicator
think about those levers and you
know, what they can manipulate
in order to give the best return
possible to the investors
ultimately make more money for
the syndicator or fund manager,
and everybody's happy.
So, now that we've discussed
that, let's go ahead and talk
about our levers again. So we've
got our assumptions, actually
straight facts and assumptions.
And that leads to our
calculation of noi.
And that leads to our
calculation of cash flow.
And that leads to our metrics
and equity.
So that is our normal starting
place on on where everything's
begins. Now, we've talked about
facts and assumptions and how we
calculate those things. Ad
nauseam, right, so we know what
facts are, we know what our
assumptions are, we know that as
we get further out from where we
are today, we get more and more
assumptions, right? We're making
more and more assumptions about
what's going to happen. For
example, when Anya and I were
looking at that house, for $174
a square foot, we made an
assumption, we made an
assumption that turned out to be
absolutely wrong. That, well
$174 A square foot is a is a
fair price for that house. And
our assumption is that when one
year has passed, those same
properties, similar properties
would be maybe, maybe with a
crazy, crazy market, maybe $200
a square foot. Because we really
didn't see a lot of $174 a
square foot, most of them were
like 150, this one was 174 that
we liked the most. So maybe they
would go up to $200 a square
foot and that assumption was
wrong. So we all know what
assumptions are. And we all know
that as we get further out, like
our projection a just a year
out. And in this case, it's our
projection just six months out,
there is no way I would have
guessed that it would go over
$174 a square foot there that it
would go over $200 a square foot
in six months, that would be
absolutely nuts. But it did. So
that is that those are our
assumptions. And a y we already
know about right? That's our
operating our our income, minus
operating expenses, equals our
noi. I've already gone through
all of those and really kind of
talked at length about how we do
that. So right now though, I'd
like to talk a little bit more
about cash flow. And if we have
time, we'll talk a little bit
about metrics and equity. So
cash flow is pretty simple. So
cash flow really starts with
Noi. Right? And if you remember
in, in when we're talking about
noi, there's two kinds of
expenses. Right? So our anoa our
cash flow is our noi minus our
below the line costs, which I
guess we'll put discretionary
expenses. Actually, well, we'll
see Yeah, I don't really want to
use the word capital expenses.
It's a little bit takes us a
little bit off topic. And that
equals our cash flow. And for
our purposes, its cash flow
before tax. Because we don't, we
don't really taxes into main
concern for almost everything we
did was gone. There we go. So
what are those discretionary?
Why are we scrambling like that?
I have no idea. So what are is
our discretionary expenses, the
biggest one is debt is debt
service, right. So when we're
looking at a loan, and we're
looking at financing the
property, we make more money in
general, when we put debt on the
property, and we just need less
equity. So our investors make
more money, I should say,
actually, if you do the way, the
deal, the way that I tend to
where we just take an equity
stake, you actually make less
money because you're raising
less equity. And so if I'm
getting 10% of the, of the total
amount raised, if I put debt on
it, that's not money I'm really
raising. So I don't get that
portion of that money. So I, as
a syndicator, I tend to make
less money, if I put debt on it
not but most of the time you
need debt in order to make the
deal work. So debt service, and
so we've got our principal
expenses.
I always get it mixed up. It's
bad spelling, nope, that's
principal, like your principals,
your principal and your
interest. Right. So I always
want to keep my I would like to
keep if I could, in a in a
syndication of a reasonable
term, I would probably choose if
I could to do no interest. I
mean, though, of course, it
should do no interest, I would
prefer to do an interest only
lot. And the reason is, is that
interest only means that I'm not
really capitalizing, I'm not
getting extra money for paying
the bank back for part of the
principle, I'm only making, I'm
making more money off the spread
between where I bought it. And
where I'm selling it right from
this spread here is where I'm
making my money. But if I'm
reducing this Unbound, if I'm
giving money to the bank,
basically, without any real kind
of, or I'm doing it a basically
a bank interest is putting it
away, it's like saving it with
the bank interest, right? I'm
not getting real great value on
that, where I'm looking for big,
big wins, where the, the
increase of the value of the
property is over what the over
what the I would be paying the
bank. So if the bank is making
3% or 4%, say, on its loan
interest. And then, but I'm
getting, you know, I buy it at a
seven cap. I have this 3% spread
it's just there, right? That's,
that's in my pocket. Whereas if
I'm paying down the principal of
the property, that 3% It's so
minimal in comparison to what
I'm getting on the rest of it,
me paying down my principal just
it just eats up my my profit in
the long term. Now, it's great
if you are a if you are the kind
of investor who's looking for
pure appreciation, and cash flow
isn't very important, right? If
you have a zero cash flow
building, just because it's all
appreciation that you're going
to be doing. And that your
principal is part of that that's
okay. Because you're you're not
really looking for those
payments that are going to the
investor every single period in
order to raise your IRR. So that
service is your big one. But you
also have other things you have
your leasing costs. Right,
that's a big expense. You've got
your tenant improvements, you've
got your capital expenses. Now
your capital expenses may or may
not be able to be passed on half
to two in two tenants
sometimes it can sometimes it
can't it's in your lease. And
then I've got of course my, why
are you doing that to me? My
asset management fee
so we've got, we've got our
debt, debt service, principal
and interest, leasing costs, T
eyes, capital expenses, asset
management, amount towards
reserves.
Reserves those are all
subtracted now from noi in order
to get your cash flow before
taxes now, is there anything
that gets added into there? Not
really. There's nothing that
brings up your cash flow in this
particular conversation. Now you
can do some fancy accounting.
But I wouldn't. So some of you
may be thinking, well, couldn't
I do something like what Elon
Musk is doing in order with with
the with? What do you call those
things? With cyber with
cryptocurrency? For Tesla, can
you do the same sort of thing?
Where you're parking that money
that's being spun off by the
cash flow into an asset? Which
hopefully appreciates or pays
income and rate raises that
amount? Well, yeah, you can.
That is something that does
happen. It just doesn't happen
really in the real estate game
much at all. Once it once you
start doing this, you're really
talking in the hedge fund world,
and that's just not that's just
a different world, and then what
we plan so, but I'm always
trying to look at okay, well,
how can I game the system? And
how can I? How can I? How can I
plus one? Anything, right? I
want to plus one my noi, I want
to, you know, here, I want a
minus one my assumptions and
plus one my facts and how can I
get my equity, you know, double
plus one, your double, I guess
plus two, that will be plus two
when
so I, you know, I'm always when
wanting to do that. So when I
even just write it there, that's
what I'm thinking like, Okay,
well, how can I get my How can I
increase my so if discretionary
expenses comes off of my noi, to
give me my cash flow before
taxes, is there anything that
increases? So you should be
thinking the same way? How can I
increase it? And likewise,
you're always thinking about
these things, too. How can I
reduce my leasing costs? How can
I reduce my debt service which
goes to our discussion on
interest only loans? I can tell
you as an aside, I have had in
the past week, I've had
conversations with people with
syndicators three four
syndicators who all are doing
hard money loans
and three of them are looking at
borrowing
one is putting together a fund
to lend and I certainly
understand the the one putting
together to lend and I cannot
understand the three that are
looking to borrow right now. I
mean, I know that it's it's
appealing because of timing
because of the funds that are
available but man oh man money's
cheap right now and there's tons
of people looking to invest it's
just an aside because your print
the your interest payments and
penalties are so huge on hard
money, but I don't really see
the point. It's, it's well if
you absolutely have to do it,
but otherwise, so how can you
reduce ti costs becomes a lot
more tricky. You know, in a hot
market where there's a lot of
people clamoring you can
negotiate T eyes and get less
less T eyes. Capital expenses,
you know, this is not a good
time to be paying capital
expenses. So the costs of
construction are really, really
high. I wouldn't be, I would be
hoping to avoid any kind of
capital expenses right now.
Asset management fees are mine
to decide with. So what I want
to do, and reserves right, I
want to keep that as low as
possible, because I want to give
as much money to my investors as
possible, so that they're happy.
But I also need it as reserves
so that I have it. That's just
sort of a discussion on cash
flow and some of the thought
process behind it. I know that
video was useful for you, if
you're looking at putting
together a syndication or a fun,
even these video, this video was
in the real estate context, but
it doesn't have to be it could
be for business or for anything
really, financial analysis takes
place both ways and both under
any kind of security that you're
putting together. Now if you
need help putting your security
together, then give me a call.
My name is Tilden Moschetti. I
am a syndication attorney with
the Moschetti Syndication Law
Group. You saw the video of the
way that I did things back then
I still do that today. That's
the kind of help that on top of
the legal documents that we can
help you with. So as part of why
my representation of clients, we
of course, do all the legal
paperwork, the private place
memorandum operating agreement,
subscription agreement, but a
lot of times our newer
syndicators or even the season
ones have specific questions
about you know how to do things,
how to put things together and
how to make it so that they're a
their offering is as good as
possible. That's what we're
there for. Not only the legal
documents, but do whatever we
can do to help you be successful
in your securities offering