Behavioral Finance for Syndicators and Fund Managers Part 6: Emotional Biases - Status Quo, Over Confidence, and Regret Aversion
This is the last video in our
focus on behavioral economics,
those forces that drive us as
syndicators, fund managers,
businesses raising capital,
those forces that determine
whether our underwriting is
good, or not so good. It's those
forces underneath the surface
that are helping us make
decisions, sometimes for good,
mostly for ILL. So we need to be
aware of what they are, what
they do and how they work. So in
this video, the last of our
series is going to focus on the
last three emotional biases that
take place underneath behavioral
economics.
There are six emotional biases
when it comes to behavioral
economics. In the last video, we
talked about loss aversion
endowment, and self control.
Today, we're going to focus on
the last three, which are status
quo overconfidence and regret
aversion. So these are emotional
biases that take place that are
in us all, they are emotional
biases that drive us some type
of more larger extent than
others, but they're there. And
they help us and they help us
make decisions. They make us
more efficient, but they often
can change our analysis in a way
that's less good. So by focusing
on them, and thinking about
them, and going through a list
as your underwriting, asking
yourself, if the if you're being
moved by one of these is
helpful, because it makes our
numbers more accurate, it makes
our analysis more accurate,
which helps our investors who
make more more, more money from
it. And it helps us by helping
them make more money for it. And
a lot of times, it makes us more
money at the same time to the
better our decision making is,
the better our analysis is, the
better it is for them and for
us. So it really works across
the board. And it's a useful
exercise to think about as you
go through your underwriting
process. So let's talk about
what these are. The status quo
is really just the resistance to
change.
I like to think of status quo,
the status quo bias says, Well,
I've done this this way for for
a million years. And so that's
what we're going to stick with,
I've put out offers under this
under this rule for, you know,
since the beginning, and that's
what we're going to stick with,
I always raise money with my
friends and family. And I never
put an advertisement out,
because that's when that's what
we're going to stick with. I
always go to my one investor who
always invests, you know, 50% of
all the capital I need to raise,
and that's what we're gonna
stick with, we're not going to
diversify more, I always buy
multifamily properties. And
that's what we're going to stick
with, well, that all well may be
well and good. And that may be
something that you still want to
do. But it is also a status quo
bias. It's also a resistance to
change. Now, this is extremely
normal. We all have this, this
tendency to want to stick to
what's known, rather than
venturing forth into the
unknown, when it's more risky.
It feels riskier in order to do
that. But sometimes status quo
can also cause problems by
relying on that one key
investor, what happens when that
one key investor drops out and
isn't going to be investing
anymore? When that one asset
type that we've been focused on
suddenly changes in the markets
view? And then we suddenly left
without anything to syndicate
anymore, because nobody would
invest with us anymore. What do
we do? And how do we adapt to
change when you're trying stuck
in status quo? Because
obviously, you can't, right? The
whole idea of adapting to change
is you got to change. So and
then that has to unstick us from
the status quo bias. That's the
status quo bias. So when you're
underwriting or when you're
picking new projects, just think
Why are you stuck there? You
know, which maybe you should
open it up just a little bit or
think about things opening up
just a little bit and kind of
test yourself, see if it makes
sense might, it may not and if
it doesn't, that's great, but at
least you went through the
thought process of, well, maybe
what would happen if I did x, or
opened it up or thought a little
bit more broadly about things.
Number two is the
overconfidence. This is the
belief in Superior.
bility to profit
From economic data now this one
certainly is there. I mean,
everybody who's comes most of my
clients come from a more salesy
background or a development
background. Those two fields
oftentimes have overconfidence
as a relates to it, it's how
they get the job done. Because
the things that they have to do
to sell or to develop are
challenging and weighty. And if
you didn't have a lot of
confidence, it'd be really hard
to do it. So a lot of people do
suffer from this overconfidence
and that's okay to a point. It's
okay as long as you're not doing
what is the natural fallout from
this, which is understating or
under? Let's call it under
estimating losses risks and
overestimating profits and
benefits right, that's what can
happen if we've got too much.
Too much overconfidence is that
we're overestimating, right?
It's that we don't want to do
that we don't want to we need to
make sure that our analysis is
our complete, accurate and
neutral, right. And so that's,
that's the big risk of
overconfidence. overconfidence
in itself is very helpful. It's
that over, overstate
overestimating underestimating
issue that comes up. That's the
problem. So that's the
overconfidence problem. Now, the
last one is regret aversion.
Now, this is similar to loss
aversion, but it's seeking. To
avoid negative outcomes. Only
only seeking to avoid negative
outcomes. So whereas loss
aversion is you want to avoid
the whole loss, this is just
you're trying to seek a negative
outcome. This can be holding on
to a position too long, or
avoiding markets. This happens
quite a bit, avoiding markets
with sharp gains and losses,
because you start thinking,
okay, maybe that maybe I will
have be seen as I came in too
late, or I exited too early. So
that's the regretted version
that you would gret you're the
decision that you made about
that one particular thing. I
think that might be the key is
that avoiding markets or assets
or something that have those
sharp, sharp gains and losses,
thinking, well, maybe investors
are going to think that I'm
going, I got in too late or I
got in too early. That is regret
aversion. So my name is Tilden
Moschetti. Now I am a
syndication attorney with the
Moschetti syndication Law Group.
I help specifically real estate
developers, real estate,
syndicators, real estate fund
managers, fund managers of other
asset classes, private equity
funds, businesses, all of them,
I help them to raise capital and
stay in compliance with the
rules of the SEC and state
government. So under the SEC,
we're talking about Regulation D
rule 506 B, and 506. Seat and
for the states is making sure
that they are notified that we
are doing offerings underneath
those regulations under
Regulation D. So that's what my
my law practice does. What also
the other hat I wear as as a
syndicator, and fund manager
myself. So as that I've been
exposed to a lot of the problems
that you face every day. So with
my legal hat on, I certainly see
a huge panoply of problems that
can happen and opportunities as
a lawyer with things that happen
and risks and I can analyze, and
I do analyze for how that
happens and help my clients with
that help explain conflicts help
minimize and mitigate risks and
conflicts and all those things
explain terms and craft language
in order to protect them, but
also as a syndicator and fund
manager myself. I've also been
in your shoes, so I know the
pressures that you feel at the
same time of these behavioral
economic forces. I felt the
pressure of needing to raise
funds from investors. I've had
investors sitting across from
me, and I've pitched them I've
talked to them about the
investment and why they should
buy, I've been looking for
assets, I look for assets to buy
as well, just like you do in
order to make sure that I can
have something to offer them so
that I can make money. I've had
to make decisions on when to
waive contingencies on deals and
when to put my own money at
risk. So those same forces that
happen, what that offers is a
very broad view. So that's what
we help clients with is to help
you ultimately be successful
with your capital raising
offering because not only am I
an excellent lawyer, but I also
have been in your shoes doing
exactly what you're doing as
well. And we can offer advice
and consultation in order to
help make you successful. So
give my office a call if we can
help put your offering together
under Regulation D rule 506 B,
rule 506 C, and we'll also help
you as a client work through the
issues that you experience as a
syndicator from somebody who's
been there and done it
themselves.