Behavioral Finance for Syndicators and Fund Managers Part 5: Emotional Biases - Loss Aversion, Endowment, and Self-control
In this six part series, we've
been going through behavioral
economics. Behavioral Economics
is the study of the what really
drives how we make our
decisions. When it comes to
economic decisions, how do we
decide what to buy, what to sell
how to build a portfolio? Now,
why is this important? Well,
it's important for syndicators
and fund managers and
businesses, because that's the
basis of how a lot of our
decisions get made. It's part of
our underwriting is this stuff
that's working on in the
background. Now, we went over
the cognitive reasons in our
last few videos, those things
that are errors in judgment and
how, where those come from, in
this video and the following,
we're going to talk about the
six emotional biases that start
of drive in the background or
emotional decision making. These
are the things that are weighing
you beneath the surface that are
creeping there that could dry
make our decision and
underwriting just way off. So
let's go ahead and get started
with the first three.
Here are the six emotional
biases. Now today's video, we're
going to talk just about these
first three, and go through what
exactly they are what they mean
to you. So the first one is the
real Biggie, actually, it's
called loss aversion. So it is
the fixation on the avoidance of
a loss. So think about it this
way, I'll give a personal story.
And that will kind of given a
good example, in about 1999. I
bought into a lot of stocks, I
figured I was a really good
stock trader and was making it
was doing really well. Now
Little did I know that in the
back of my mind was this loss
avoidance loss aversion problem.
So hidden back there was this
belief that, that I couldn't
take a loss that everything had
to come up. So when a stock went
down, rather than sell it, what
I would do is hold on to it,
thinking surely it's coming up.
Now if you know what was
happening during 1999, things
were starting to implode pretty
badly. We had almost reached the
top 2000 happened. And then
after 2000, things went downhill
pretty quickly. So I was well
invested. I had things all
across the technology sector,
which was great up until 1999,
come 2000 February ish, probably
things started to take the loss.
One of my assets that I invested
really heavily in and still
believe in today was wet van, I
put him Dollar After Dollar
After Dollar in the web, then
buying stock buying and buying
and buying and buying it. Now,
what Van had a great idea was
grocery delivery service, it
really was good. They had a huge
network that they had built out.
Unfortunately, they had grown
too quickly. And they couldn't
service anything. And so the the
stock round that time around
February of 2000, started
tanking and started thinking a
lot. And but what did I do?
Well, surely it's going to come
up, right? Surely it's going to
come up, it's got so much value,
it's going to come back up, it's
going to come back up. I can't
sell it because it's going to go
back up. Even when it was worth
half of what I paid for. The
writing was looking like it was
on the wall for web then it
looked like it was gonna go
belly up. I couldn't sell it
because I couldn't stand for
Deleuze. Because it was such a
good product. It was such a good
idea. And it was so well put
together. It really had
everything going for it. Except
it didn't. The market didn't buy
it. It wasn't what was valuable
at the time. It wasn't a
believed in that it was going to
be successful. But my loss
aversion was unwilling to take a
loss on web then what happened
to web ban bankruptcy now worth
zero. I've got 1000s of shares
and a company that doesn't exist
anymore called Web then that is
loss aversion. So it is the
fixation on avoidance of loss.
It's irrational. It's accounting
on it's accounting for sunk
costs is how I like to think for
it. So it's well I already put
all this money into it. And so
surely it's got to come up.
Well, those days were already
gone so I could have taken the
loss and then moved on and put
it into something that would be
more profitable, but I didn't
write so I counted on, it's just
got to come up because I can't
lose on web then. So I like to
also think of it oh, let me
write that down. Accounting
for sunk costs so that's a loss
aversion, not willing to, to
make it, to make it to take a
loss on something. endowment
bias is a little bit different.
So endowments is the feeling
it's worth more because you owe
it, own it.
So where I see this play out,
most of the time as a
syndication and fund attorney is
where you have a freshly in a
fund where they are preceding
something with assets. So the
fund is preceding it with
assets. And they have this
belief that since it, this came
in, in the beginning, this is
really the powerhouse of it.
This is what made them
successful. And they've endowed
these assets with magical
powers. They've endowed this as
the cause of their success. And
so therefore, nothing can be
done. In order to sell this. I
see this all the time. This is
the endowment bias. So it's that
feeling it's worth more or the
cause of their success, because
it's already owned, and it was
responsible for maybe their
success up until a certain
point, but then it could be a
big, negative detriment. And you
could even think of it not even
as a specific asset, but even an
asset class. So a lot of people
think, Well, I'm a multifamily
guy, because I started in
multifamily. And it's been the
cause of all my success. Well,
that's great. But there might be
other asset classes that would
be even better for you. So I
think multifamily is great. But
I think there's also a lot of
other asset classes that are
even better. Of course, deal by
deal, there are certainly going
to be multifamily assets that
are truly stellar, absolutely
solid, and they should be
invested into. But it doesn't
mean that all multifamily
products are great, because
they're not, most of them
aren't. But there are a number
that are. But there are also a
number of other asset classes
that are also great. So that's
endowment. The last one we're
going to talk about today is the
self control. Now, it's an
illusion of self control. So
this the way this mostly comes
about for syndications or in
funds is having insufficient
reserves. Reserves are necessary
to make the expenditures to
protect the investment itself to
protect the whole syndication or
the fun for whatever may come
up, of course, its reserves
right and savings to make sure
that you can cover those things
while having to do a capital
call. Well, a lot of especially
funds get that pressure to buy
more and more assets. And so
they don't want their investment
reserves to pay be too high.
They also want to buy more, and
so they lack the self control to
identify, Okay, we need to
really find the best assets and
if it's not there, maybe we do
we do a distribution, or maybe
it's something else. But for the
biggest cause that is the
biggest problem I see is
insufficient reserves. Also, if
it is this pressure to buy two
months or outside of the fit. A
fit of course is founder
investment theory, buying
outside of what you normally
would because you've got this
pool of cash, you need to spend
it, you need to grow the fund,
right? I know that pressure, I
felt it myself. It's there. And
so you get this pressure to buy
whatever it is, or even if it's
not even an fun context, you
need to put another syndication
together. You've got all these
investors who are clamoring for
it. You lack the control in
under this bias. It's that lack
of control of waiting until
there's the best asset for you.
So making the making the
investment kind of stilted,
saying, Oh, this is what we
should invest in, because you're
feeling that pressure and you
don't have the control in order
to manage it and just say, it's
just not the right time, the
assets, not there. So that's the
bias of self control. And when I
say you, I don't mean you
necessarily have that. But a lot
of us do. I certainly do. I felt
that pressure and finding the
right assets to do, fortunately,
I've been able to control it,
and I always invested in very
good things. But, you know,
maybe it is something that I
actually have to like, think
about, like when I'm
underwriting Am I doing this
because the numbers are really
there, or is something pushing
me to say, to do this, when I
just feel that pressure. So it's
a it's a natural thing, which
leads me to why we do this, why
we talk about these behavioral
economics biases, is because
there are those pressures there.
You know, we make money as
syndicators and fund managers by
buying stuff by running these
things. And so you feel a lot of
pressures. And there's a lot of
pressures there. That may shape
that underwriting, which is bad
for investors and bad for our
investment business and bad for
our syndication business.
Because it makes us invest into
things that aren't, shouldn't be
invested into. And it may make
us blind to things that are
better investments that are out
there. And so the whole point of
why we're even talking about
behavioral economics is to help
you like see what the different
things are, that are just going
beneath the surface, right? I
mean, this is all iceberg stuff,
you know, these are the things
you're aware of. But down here,
there's all this other stuff.
Behavioral
Right. So there's all this other
stuff going on, too. And that's
what needs to be combatted. So
that way, when decisions are
made, it's because all these are
all good things. So if we can
lower the water. So we can make
decisions based on more thorough
analysis of more facts. And then
there's still some things that
are always going to be here
beneath the surface. That's why
we do it. So my name is Tilden
Moschetti. I am a syndication
attorney for the Moschetti
syndication lager, we help
syndicators and fund managers
and businesses raise money by
putting their their documents
together for them, and also
offering advice and expertise in
putting those syndications funds
business capital raises together
for Regulation D, rule 506 B and
rule 506. C offerings. Of
course, I also have another hat,
which is doing my own
syndications, my own funds, and
raising money for my own
businesses. So I have expertise,
both real world just like you.
And I've been a play I've had,
I've experienced all these kinds
of behavioral economics issues
in that role. And that's one of
our unique propositions for why
we're, we're such a great firm
is that we've have the
experience and the legal
expertise, but also that real
world experience and I've been
in your shoes before, so I know
what the different pressures are
and I know what it's like to
raise money. So that's what we
do. If we can help you don't
hesitate to give us a call.