Behavioral Finance for Syndicators and Fund Managers Part 4: Cognitive Biases - Anchoring, Mental Accounting, and Availability
And syndicators, fund managers,
businesses, we're all at the
mercy of economics. But not all
economics are outside forces.
Some of them are internal. And
that's what we're going through,
we're going through what has
been called behavioral economics
to go through, really the things
that drive us internally, and
shape the way we put our offers
together, most often in a
negative way. So that we can
look at those examine those,
make sure that we're not playing
victim ourselves to those
forces, make changes for the
better not only for our
investors, but also as for
ourselves, and really for the
truth in the market as a whole.
To make the world a better
place, we need to understand
what drives us and how we make
decisions. So in this video, we
are going to go through the last
three of the cognitive
behavioral elements.
There are nine cognitive
behavioral economic forces that
work inside our heads. Now,
these cognitive behavioral
forces are things that are there
in everybody, some too much more
of an extent than others, but
everybody's got them. And so the
idea is, if we can understand
what these are, we can take a
look at ourselves and our
processes. Make sure that when
we're doing an analysis, or when
we're putting a deal together,
whether it's for a fund a
syndication or a business, and
whatever that capital raise is
that the information we're
putting together is accurate,
neutral. And so we're not
driving things based on really
just faulty logic, which is what
cognitive behavioral economic
forces are. So we've already
gone through conservatism,
confirmation control. But what
we and we've gone through
representativeness, hindsight
and framing. But what we haven't
gone through yet are the final
three, which our anchoring
mental accounting, and
availability. So what are these
individual forces? And how can
we address them? So let's go
through them in turn, first,
let's move this down just a
little bit. Alright, so when
we're talking about an anchoring
bias, we're talking about
basically fixating on a on a
fixed outside outcome, fixating
on a specific outcome. Rather
than being flexible. So if you
think about it as like, well,
you think that a candy bar in my
day cost 50 cents when I was a
kid, kindergarteners cost a lot
more than that. Now, sometimes
it was 45, most of the time, it
was 50 cents, even for the king
sized bar. So we're 50 cents. So
if I think about, well, I want
to be able to buy that candy bar
for 50 cents, I'm not going to
be flexible at all about it.
That's an anchored bias, right?
So I'm anchoring to that 50
cent. Likewise, if you're
thinking about your asset, and
you've told investors, hey,
we're going to sell this at a
six cap, if it was a real estate
deal, for example, we're going
to sell it at a six cap. Or if
it's a business, well, we're
gonna, we're gonna find an
investor for it. And we're gonna
do it at, you know, five times
earnings, it's got to be five
times earnings. That's our
number. Well, what if the deal
comes in at four and a half
times earnings? Or what if
there's no and there's no buyers
at that at that particular
price. So it's all in four and a
half. It's that getting fixated
on a certain number rather than
making clear, logical, rational
decisions. That's what anchoring
is. Now anchoring happens all
the time. And it happens as part
of our communication as
syndicators fund managers,
businesses, when we talk to
investors, people start getting
anchored to the numbers that we
have, and the numbers that we
give them. And that's pure
natural, that happens all the
time. And that's why we set
things like targets, targeted
returns, you know, we make it
very clear that these are what
we think we're going to get.
It's not what necessarily is
going to happen. market forces
are out there. But internally,
we make the same sort of
decision, the same sort of ideas
themselves. Think about putting
a budget together, whether it's
for a property or for a
business, you have in your mind
a fixed price of what something
is going to cost. And so rather
than look at the market,
necessarily, we think, okay,
that's what I can get this thing
for, or that's what I can have
hire these people for. But that
may not necessarily be the case.
Even with overwhelming evidence,
we may be stuck on a specific
number, and not being able to
move on that number is going to
change the facts and assumptions
in our analysis to the detriment
of our investors and to
ourselves. That is the anchoring
cognitive balance. Now, how can
we do it, we have to just
address it, we have to ask
ourselves openly? Am I getting
stuck on any specific number is
there evidence to the contrary,
saying that this isn't really
what's there, if it's the sales
price of of either an asset or a
business or something like that?
Is that what the market is
telling me right now as the fair
market value of it, if it is,
then if the if the value is
different than what you're being
told by the value is different
than what fair market value is
being told you by the market,
it's time to pay attention to
the market, and really adjusted
numbers accordingly. Now, it
doesn't mean that you have to
sell if you don't like that
number, but you need to do the
analysis in order to make sure
that you're not getting anchored
to something that just doesn't
exist, something is not real.
All right, mental accounting is,
is thought of as an improper
grouping of wealth.
Now, where I see this happen all
the time, is you talk to
somebody, and you think they are
thinking of two kinds of one
kind of asset and they're
lumping it together. Let's say
it is a business that's
generating a decent profit, but
it's not generating a lot of
profit. Some business managers
have the tendency to add the
value of their company on top of
what their, their profits are,
when they comes to budgeting for
new items. For example, if I, if
a company A has $1 million in
profit, they may be thinking,
Okay, well, our company is worth
five times our earnings. So
that's $5 million. So really,
it's $6 million dollars, that we
have to spend, we can use that
$5 million as a credit account.
But you can't because it's
actually just a it's paper
money, it doesn't exist, it's
only there on paper until it's
sold, it doesn't exactly exist.
And so when you think about
mental accounting, it's okay to
expense, you know, to incurring
expenses like that, but Don't
lump in the groupings of them
just just because you can. So
some people, for example, the
common one for investors from
the investor side is somebody
may want to take this great
vacation, right? And so they
think, oh, okay, I'm gonna take
this great vacation, it costs a
lot of money, but I make a lot
of money and soil is good, but
they're not counting in the cost
of their any liabilities that
they may have. So they're not
doing a real grouping of what
their actual income is, as it
relates to the cost of the the
of the vacation. So that's
mental accounting. Now, how do
we do? How do we take care of
this? Is really look at those
line items very specifically,
are you counting things in a way
that's a little bit different?
If an account wouldn't
accountant say that? Well, yes,
you've done this right? Or would
the accountant say, Oh, this
looks a little off, I don't
think the accounts are set up
quite right, in order to do XYZ.
Now, you still can make those
decisions, but you got to know
that you're making those
decisions, right. So that is
mental accounting. Now last is
actually is a very common bias.
And it is a it's a bias which
can also work pretty well to
your to your favor if you're
doing a 506 C offering, and
that's the availability bias.
And so that's where we place
more value on info easily
gathered, oops.
So this is where we place more
value on something that's easily
gathered. So where this may come
from is a bias where we start
seeing a heavy amount of
advertising for example, you see
a lot of advertising for this
product, it's the same product
you see it over and over again.
Now if you're putting it
syndication together a fund
together, maybe you Have seen
ads and you see the same people
over and over again. Right. So
you may find yourself putting
overwhelming, leaning overly
whelming, to putting them in a
higher category than what they
naturally would be. Now, this
can also skew as your investor's
point of view as well. If your
investors start seeing ad after
ad after ad after ad, when
you're doing a 506. C, they may
naturally rank you higher,
because you're everywhere, which
really, you're just advertising
very specifically to them. It's
the whole idea behind
retargeting and why you would do
that, because it raises that
level of importance, because the
value that you do it now for you
as a sponsor, and as fund
manager, and not on the dark
side of manipulating based on
ads. This is also important for
you to realize by basing your
decisions that you make and the
information that you gather, not
on just the prevalence of
advertising, or just on the
prevalence of how easy it is
that property manager that
you're thinking of hiring that
has billboards, all of all up
and down Main Street, doesn't
mean they're a better a better
property manager at all. It
means that they've got more of a
budget to spend on advertising.
So some people think about REITs
this way, right? So that reads
is everywhere? Well, that
doesn't necessarily mean that
they're making good profits or
that they're good REIT. So
really look at how are you
ranking things in your own mind,
are you placing more value on
specific information than that,
then is really out there just
because it's easy. So my name is
Tilden Moschetti. I am a
syndication attorney with the
Moschetti syndication Law Group.
reason that we're putting these
together is because you're
syndicating or putting a fund
together a business. And I also
do the same thing for myself. So
I wear two hats. I wear a hat as
an attorney. And I also wear the
hat as a syndicator. myself. So
I thought it would be a useful
activity to go through the same
kind of underwriting details
that I have to check myself
with. And I'm sure you do, too,
to make sure that I'm not
falling victim to these biases,
which could throw off my
numbers, because some of these I
certainly do quite a bit. Right.
I mean, everybody does anchoring
to some extent when we're
talking to investors, but we
also anchor things about what
value should be in our own
hands. We all do have an idea
about what the how we should
group sets of money or how we
should think about those in that
mental accounting game. And then
we also play victim to the
availability bias, where we
place values on things a little
bit differently. It's not really
a rational decision on how we
necessarily place that
availability. That the
credibility of that information,
we fall victim to that
availability bias. So again,
Tilden Moschetti, that's me. I
am a syndication attorney with
the Moschetti syndication Law
Group. And if we can help you
put your syndication or
fundraise together, or your help
raise money for your capital by
giving you not only the legal
documents that are necessary,
but also all of the information
that I have as an experienced
syndicator myself, we would be
happy to talk with you. Give us
a call today.